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This is a classic case of conflicting incentives. Trump wants lower oil prices to fight inflation and apply economic pressure on adversaries like Russia and Iran. However, the two primary sources of additional supply—U.S. shale and Saudi Arabia—aren’t eager to cooperate. The U.S. shale industry has fundamentally changed since its boom-and-bust cycles of the past decade, while Saudi Arabia has its own economic and geopolitical interests that don’t necessarily align with Trump’s goals.

The Shale Industry’s Reluctance

During the early years of the shale boom, U.S. producers were known for their aggressive drilling strategies, often expanding production at all costs. This relentless push for growth led to an oversupply of oil, periodic price collapses, and, eventually, a wave of bankruptcies. Now, with hard-earned lessons from past downturns, oil companies have shifted their priorities. Instead of chasing rapid production increases, most U.S. shale firms are focused on capital discipline—returning cash to investors through dividends and buybacks rather than investing heavily in new drilling.

Even if Trump follows through on his promise to roll back environmental regulations and streamline permitting processes, it’s unlikely to trigger another drilling boom. Infrastructure limitations, labor shortages, and cautious capital allocation from investors all act as constraints. While marginal production increases are possible, they won’t be anywhere near the levels needed to meaningfully impact global oil prices in the short term.

Furthermore, shale oil has an inherent production decline rate. Unlike conventional wells, which can produce oil for decades, shale wells decline rapidly after their initial production surge. That means companies must keep drilling just to maintain current production levels, let alone significantly increase them. With many prime drilling locations already tapped, the economics of expanding production aren’t as favorable as they were in the past.

Saudi Arabia’s Dilemma

On the other side of the equation, Saudi Arabia has little incentive to increase production at Trump’s request. The kingdom relies on high oil prices to fund its Vision 2030 economic transformation plan, which includes massive infrastructure projects, social programs, and economic diversification efforts. According to the International Monetary Fund, Saudi Arabia needs oil prices around $90 per barrel to balance its budget. If it were to flood the market with oil, prices could plunge, putting its fiscal stability at risk.

Beyond economic concerns, Saudi Arabia must also consider its role within OPEC+. The cartel, which includes Russia and other major producers, carefully coordinates output levels to prevent oversupply and keep prices stable. If Saudi Arabia unilaterally decided to increase production, it could strain its relationship with Russia and disrupt the delicate balance within OPEC+. Given the growing geopolitical alignment between Riyadh and Moscow, it’s unlikely that the Saudis would jeopardize that partnership simply to appease Trump.

There’s also a historical precedent for Saudi Arabia’s reluctance. In 2018, the Trump administration asked the kingdom to ramp up production in anticipation of renewed sanctions on Iran. However, after Saudi Arabia increased output, Trump unexpectedly granted exemptions to some Iranian oil buyers, leading to a glut of supply and a drop in oil prices. This left the Saudis feeling burned, and they are unlikely to make the same mistake again.

The Geopolitical Risk of Sanctions

If Trump follows through on his promise to reimpose stricter sanctions on Iran, the global oil market could face further disruptions. Current estimates suggest that new sanctions could reduce Iran’s oil exports by 500,000 to 750,000 barrels per day. If Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members don’t step in to replace that lost supply, oil prices could rise rather than fall. That would put Trump in a difficult position, as higher fuel costs could hurt American consumers and undercut one of his key economic promises.

Additionally, the Saudis are now taking a more diplomatic approach to Iran. Unlike in 2018, when they lobbied against the Iran nuclear deal and supported Trump’s maximum pressure campaign, Saudi leaders are now advocating for a more peaceful relationship with Tehran. This shift further reduces the likelihood that they will agree to significantly boost oil production in response to Trump’s foreign policy moves.

The Reality of Trump’s Oil Strategy

Despite Trump’s rhetoric about unleashing American energy dominance, the reality is that neither U.S. shale producers nor Saudi Arabia are willing or able to flood the market with oil in the near term. The best Trump can hope for is modest production increases over time, driven by regulatory rollbacks and improved industry economics. However, that won’t be enough to achieve his goal of significantly lowering oil prices.

Instead, Trump’s most viable strategy may involve direct negotiations with Saudi Arabia. If he can secure an agreement for incremental production increases, it could help stabilize prices. However, given the kingdom’s budgetary needs, geopolitical priorities, and past experiences with Trump’s energy policies, they are unlikely to make major concessions.

In short, Trump’s plan to bring down oil prices faces significant roadblocks. U.S. shale companies are prioritizing financial discipline over aggressive drilling, while Saudi Arabia has little incentive to undermine its own economic and geopolitical interests. Unless Trump can find a way to shift these dynamics, his hopes for a fresh oil boom may remain just that—hopes.